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Exploring climate model data

Energy

Energy

Energy supply is a crucial service of our society. We need it to maintain a pleasant climate in our homes and offices, to feed into our manufacturing and IT industries, for transport, etc. The demand for energy is partially driven by climate: heating and air conditioning are increasingly required ijn more extreme cold or hot tempreatures. Also its supply is partially constrained by climate: renewable energy from wind, solar and biomass are obviously influenced by climate, but also cooling of thermoelectric powerplants is affected by (high) temperatures. Finally, energy generation from fossil fuels is an important component of our GHG emissions.

Climate Change Trends

Climate change in Europe will be associated with milder winters than before and hotter summers. Hotter and drier summers will also generally lead to more frequent occurrence of low flows in rivers combined with high surface water temperatures. Projections for our wind climate are less unequivocal, changes may occur due to subtle shifts in e.g. the location of the jet stream leading to regionally very different but highly uncertain trends. Also our sunshine climatology might change, with hotter summers being associated (or even caused by) more sunshine. At the same time cloudiness predictions are one of the more uncertain aspects of climate models.

Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerabilities

The milder winters than before and hotter summers will potentially lead to a equivalent shift in energy demands: less in winter for heating purposes, more in summer in cooling purposes.

The anticipated trends in summer low flows and high water temperatures may prevent thermoelectric powerplants to take in enough cooling water. As a result a summer average decrease in capacity of power plants of 6.3–19% in Europe and is foreseen, depending on the cooling system type and the climate scenario for 2031–2060. In addition, probabilities of extreme (more than 90%) reductions in thermoelectric power production will on average increase by a factor of three.

Sustainable energy sources will likely be affected by the projected climate changes, though the in themselves uncertain strength and even sign of the signal vary geographically.

Typical Workflow

For generic workflow information see that section. Specific information on workflows for this domain will follow soon. See also the Use Case below.

Use Case

The following elaborated use case is available as an example:

  • Use of climate model data in sensitivity of power energy distribution to days of high temperature variation. Read more on this use case.

 

 

The IS-ENES project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration.

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