linked in logo | IS-ENES | Contact

Exploring climate model data

Scenarios for the evaluation of impacts and adaptation to climate change in France

Goal: Providing climate change scenarios to an interdepartmental working group on assessment of impacts, adaptation and associated costs of climate change in France.

This Use Case is not functionally implemented in this portal

This use case describes the communication of information on future climate provided by the scientific community, in order to conduct studies on the cost of impacts and adaptation to climate change in France. An interdepartmental working group was settled to produce a report. The working group considered nine different domains: agriculture, forest / health / tourism / biodiversity / water / risk / transport infrastructure and building / energy / territories. The objective of the public stake-holders leading the group was to share the same information on climate change among the different participants of the group.

Author

Serge Planton, Météo-France/CNRM, France

Actors

Climate scientists (Météo-France, IPSL/LMD), impact scientists (INRA, …), members of the group, led by ONERC from the French department of ecology and energy (MEEDDM), and including representative from different departments (Agriculture, Health, DIACT, tourism) and many experts to assess the cost impacts of climate change and measures relevant to adaptation.

Data needs

Scenario simulations, downscaled with a dynamical method developed and applied at Météo-France and at IPSL/LMD , were made available. For Météo-France, they consist in one present climate simulation over the period 1960-1999 and two climate change scenarios (A2 and B2) over the period 2000-2099, performed with a variable resolution GCM (ARPEGE-Climat; Gibelin and Déqué, 2003) and given on the model grid (about 50km of resolution over France). For IPSL/LMD, they consist in one present climate simulation over the period 1970-1999 and one climate change scenarios (A2) over the periods 2030-2059 and 2070-2099, performed with a variable resolution GCM (LMDz; Hourdin et al, 2006) and given on the model grid (about 150km of resolution over France).

For the two models, the provided variables include near surface (2m) daily maximum, minimum temperature and humidity, incoming surface solar and infrared radiations, near surface (10m) wind speed, solid and liquid precipitation. The variables are also corrected using a regional re-analysis: re-analysis of French meteorological observations (SAFRAN, Météo-France; Quintana-Segui et al, 2008) and a quantile-quantile correction method. The corrected variables are used to produce indices of extremes (hot-day threshold, cold-night-threshold, frost days, longest heat-wave, heavy rainfall threshold, greatest 5-day rainfall, longest dry period, maximum wind, …) using the standard of the STARDEX project (Goodess, 2003).

Typical course of events

  • Production by the climate research group of climate scenario datasets: simulations of climate scenarios using global low resolution atmosphere / ocean / sea-ice climate models, downscaling of climate scenarios using variable resolution climate models, development and application of a correction method, calculation of climate extreme indices within the context of research projects
  • Creation by the French department of ecology and energy (MEEDDM) of the working group for the evaluation of impacts and adaptation to climate change in France
  • Selection of reference scenarios in interaction between ONERC and Météo-France to provide to the members of the working group
  • Workshops associating climatologists and the members of the working group in particular to exchange knowledge on the chosen climate change scenarios
  • Preparation of a documentation describing the data, the methods for data production, tables of averaged values and maps
  • Delivery of the documentation to the members of the working group through the ONERC web site
  • Recovery of the documentation by the members of the working group
  • Publication of the report of the working group

Support to users

A documentation describing the data, the methods for data production, tables of averaged values and maps, is provided to the users through the ONERC web site (http://www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/). Climatologists were associated to some workshops of the working group to exchange information on the scenarios.

Requested flexibility

New indices (seasonal values, other type of extremes, other definitions of extreme indices …) were requested by different members of the working group and the most part were calculated and provided.

Alternative course of events

  • New requests of indices by different members of the group (seasonal values, other type of extremes, other definitions of extreme indices, regional indices …) and communicated to the climatologists by the chairman of the group or through direct interaction
  • Meeting associating ONERC and climatologists to examine some new requests and select those retained
  • Calculation of selected new indices and adaptation of the documentation

References for the Use Case

Software used

  • ARPEGE-Climat (variable resolution version): Météo-France regional climate model
  • LMDz (variable resolution version): IPSL/LMD regional climate model
  • Météo-France correctmod: software to correct simulated variables from regional climate scenarios using available observations of these variables
  • GMT: graphical software

File format(s)

The provided documentation is provided as PDF files.

Miscellaneous

The reference scenarios were chosen in order to maintain some continuity within the long-duration chain covering climate change scenario production, climate change impact studies, construction of adaptation scenarios, assessment of the cost of impacts and of adaptation. The choice is “conservative” in order to benefit from completed studies that used at least one of the reference scenarios.

Sources and cascade of Uncertainty

The sources of uncertainty of the downscaled scenarios are the internal climate variability, the choice of the emission scenario, the choice of the climate model and the choice of the downscaling method. The uncertainty from the scenario is accounted for by using 2 different emission scenarios (B2 and A2). The uncertainty of the model choice is taken into account by selecting 2 different GCMs forcing 2 different regional climate model to calculate the statistically downscaled scenarios. The two other sources of uncertainties are here not taken into account and users were warned.

Read more on uncertainties

 

The IS-ENES project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration.

Disclaimer